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JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC. (WLY)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 delivered underlying growth and margin expansion: Adjusted Revenue rose 3% to $0.423B, Adjusted EBITDA increased 14% to $0.106B (24.9% margin), and Adjusted EPS rose 36% to $0.97; GAAP EPS was $0.74, reversing a prior-year loss .
- Learning led with 8% revenue growth to $0.162B and a 41.3% Adjusted EBITDA margin; Research grew modestly (2% revenue to $0.262B) with a 31.3% Adjusted EBITDA margin despite a $5M legacy print/licensing swing headwind .
- Guidance reaffirmed: FY25 Adjusted Revenue $1.65–$1.69B, Adjusted EBITDA $385–$410M, Adjusted EPS $3.25–$3.60, and Free Cash Flow ~$125M; management expects uneven 2H phasing with Q4 elevated and Q3 seasonally softer .
- Strategic catalysts: expanding AI licensing pipeline (two large deals executed YTD) and India’s One Nation One Subscription (ONOS) approval, which can broaden national access and support institutional models over time .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- “Continuous improvement is a way of life for us now, and it’s beginning to pay off in our quality growth and margin expansion,” said CEO Matt Kissner, highlighting broad-based execution and improving profitability .
- Learning outperformed: revenue up 8% to $0.162B and Adjusted EBITDA up 24% with margin expanding to 41.3%; drivers included AI licensing, zyBooks courseware, inclusive access, and a favorable retail environment .
- AI pipeline and productivity: two content rights projects executed YTD; 25% of colleagues reported productivity gains from AI tools; featured as an AI early adopter on Salesforce’s earnings call .
What Went Wrong
- Research legacy revenue headwinds: a nonrecurring $5M swing in legacy print/licensing weighed on quarterly comps; prior-year onetime backfile deal drove unfavorable comparisons .
- Seasonality and phasing: management guided to an uneven 2H with Q3 challenged by Learning seasonality and ongoing investments, while Q4 expected to be elevated; investors should plan for intra-year volatility .
- Cash flow timing and leverage: H1 Free Cash Flow less product development spending was a use of $130M due to normal subscription cash collections timing, with Net Debt/EBITDA at 2.2x vs 2.0x prior year .
Financial Results
Consolidated Performance vs Prior Periods
Notes: Adjusted metrics exclude Held for Sale/Sold segment, FX and certain items as defined by the company .
Year-over-Year (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)
Segment Breakdown (Q2 2025)
KPIs and Capital Allocation (YTD through Q2)
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO tone emphasized operational rigor and profitability: “We’re working to deliver compounding growth and material margin expansion over time… starting to see AI-related tailwinds” .
- On Learning momentum: “Learning has had a good year so far, both Academic and Professional… continued strong margin improvement and EPS growth” .
- On AI strategy: “We are recognized as a company at the forefront… 25% of colleagues recently reported productivity gains from AI tools” and partnering via co-innovation to build applications .
- On India ONOS: “We’re encouraged… one national license… we’re not ready to talk about incremental benefit, but we’re encouraged by India’s 40% growth in article submissions” .
Q&A Highlights
- Learning sustainability: Management cited zyBooks growth across CS/data/AI and improved trade execution; increasing signings as forward indicator .
- Research dynamics: Submissions strong across Asia (India, China, Japan) and recovered in West; legacy revenue swing explained; growth expected to improve with renewals and Solutions pipeline .
- Cost structure: Ongoing margin improvement as a “way of life”; focus areas include shared services and technology modernization; specifics to come later in the year .
- Divestiture proceeds and capital allocation: Expect eventual collections tied to University Services; balanced approach with initial debt paydown and continued shareholder returns .
- Investor day: Considering an event in calendar 2025 to update on strategy and momentum .
Estimates Context
- We attempted to retrieve Wall Street consensus EPS and revenue estimates via S&P Global for Q2 2025 but the request was blocked due to a daily limit being exceeded; therefore, consensus comparisons are unavailable for this recap [functions.GetEstimates errors].
- Given strong Adjusted EPS and margin expansion, and reaffirmed FY25 guidance, sell-side estimates may need to reflect: Learning margin durability (41% in Q2), a modest Research recovery despite legacy swings, and Q4-heavy phasing (elevated) vs Q3 (challenged) .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Learning is the near-term profit engine: margin expanded >500 bps YoY to 41.3% with diversified drivers (AI licensing, courseware, inclusive access, retail channel strength); durability looks favorable into 2H despite Q3 seasonality .
- Research recovery progressing: modest growth amid timing effects and legacy swings; CY25 renewals and ONOS in India should support institutional models; watch Q4 for elevated phasing and Solutions improvement .
- AI optionality is growing: two sizeable licensing deals completed; robust pipeline across tech/pharma/info services, plus productivity gains and platform-integrated integrity tools; recurring models could be future upside .
- Cash flow cadence remains seasonal: H1 FCF typically a use; leverage at 2.2x remains manageable; dividends and buybacks continued (557K shares at $44.89), with a fresh dividend declaration in December .
- Execution focus: leadership changes in finance, operations/technology, and marketing align with modernization, cost discipline, and brand/customer engagement—supporting sustained margin expansion through FY26 targets .
- Trading lens: Expect intra-year volatility given Q3 softness and Q4 elevation; near-term catalysts include Q3 update on renewals, AI pipeline developments, and Evidence of Solutions recovery .
- Medium-term thesis: Compounding growth from Research institutional/OA models, Learning’s digital/courseware shift, and AI monetization; margin targets (23–24% FY25; 24–25% FY26) credible given cost savings and platform productivity .
Appendix: Additional Data Tables
Segment Details Across Recent Quarters
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Highlights (YTD)
Notable Corporate Actions
- Dividend declared $0.3525 per share (payable Jan 9, 2025) and continued buybacks (~557K shares at $44.89) .
Citations: All figures and statements are drawn from company filings, press releases, and the Q2 2025 earnings call transcript .